· The production of core components is weak or the new energy vehicle is worried

The sales of Chery's small new energy vehicles represented by eQ (Chery QQ3 electric version) are surprisingly good. They have even taken the lead in making profits in several major sectors of Chery Automobile, but Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Automobile, is not happy. "In 2014, I sold more than 10,000 vehicles. I have to build 20,000 vehicles this year. The sales volume is not too strong, because the battery supply can't keep up. This is what I didn't expect before." Yin Tongyue told the Economic Observer.
Yin Tongyue’s “unhappy” is not an emotion. In the past 2014, it was regarded as the first year of new energy vehicle consumption. Last year, China's new energy vehicles sold 74,763 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.2 times. In the last month of 2014, China's new energy vehicles produced and sold 21,700 units a month, close to the total sales of the previous five months. Behind this “explosive growth”, there are a large supply gap for key components, including batteries.
Because of the long development cycle and large development costs, foreign suppliers are still on the sidelines of the domestic auto market. The technical director of a state-owned automobile group responsible for the new energy vehicle project told reporters that the demand for new energy vehicles is indeed hot, especially in the first-line purchase of cities, but the sales of new energy vehicles do not really depend on market demand, but on production. ability. “Because of many key components we rely on foreign suppliers.”
Li Wei, chairman of the Hefei Guoxuan Group, which is engaged in the research and development and production of key materials for lithium batteries, told reporters that in early January, seven domestic automakers had ordered all of the national shipments of Guoxuan Group in 2015. However, domestic suppliers have not yet filled the gap in demand for such critical components. Yin Tongyue said that on the new energy vehicles, domestic parts are at two extremes. Domestic producers are small investments and small-scale, producing small individual parts. Once mass production is required, consistency and safety are difficult to guarantee.
"Now China's domestic new producers and foreign suppliers are not expected to be on the new energy auto parts. I hope the state will take measures to allow foreign parts companies to bring technology to China." Yin Tongyue told reporters. This is not a special situation that Chery has encountered. In the new energy automobile industry, the lack of independent parts and components is becoming one of the potential dangers of the development of new energy vehicles. Because of cost, technology and other reasons, the new energy vehicles have become a trend to switch to foreign support.
Once this trend becomes a reality, industry experts worry that China's new energy auto industry will regain the old path of traditional fuel vehicles, and the core technology is “hollowed” in the supply of key components. The upstream industrial chain is completely controlled by foreign capital. At the Global New Energy Vehicle Forum held in Tianjin on January 24, experts disclosed that domestic battery production accounted for less than one-third of the country's total. "This is an extremely dangerous signal." Wang Binggang, head of the expert advisory group of the National 863 Program "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles", told reporters.
According to many senior experts in the field of electric vehicles interviewed by the reporter, China has approached or reached world-class level in key technologies, but due to the diversification of R&D investment and the scale of production, the current policy guidelines and relatively chaotic industrial ecology Next, the new energy vehicle "curve overtaking" can finally be achieved or question mark, to prevent the hollowing out of the parts system, so that this advantage is fleeting.
Lesions: weak parts and components In terms of sales data in 2014, China's electric vehicles have become the world's second-largest new energy vehicle market. There is no suspense in upgrading the largest market in 2015. Under the policy guidance, China's electric vehicle technology has also experienced rapid progress, and its overall performance is better than that of traditional cars. Among the three key technologies, the motor is the strongest and has reached the world's advanced level. The official statement of lithium batteries is the third in the world, after Japan and South Korea, and the electronic control technology is close to the world's advanced level. Wang Binggang told reporters.
But behind this series of transcripts, the supply problems on the core components have been ignored by mainstream public opinion. "The chaos in the downstream is simply not willing to say more, but it is not self-contained. It is a single fight." A second-tier supplier of new energy vehicles in Jiangsu spoke to reporters. “At present, domestic production is in small batches. Once mass production is carried out, it is difficult to find parts suppliers that can meet the requirements of product consistency and safety.”
Taking the motor as an example, there are about 120 domestic products on the whole vehicle, but nearly 100 of them have no technical reserves, which is relatively weak. “There are good companies and very poor companies. But because of local protection, poor companies can sell things and put them on the car. In general, the level is uneven: except for individual companies, most Still relatively backward." Cai Wei, chief technology officer of Beijing Jingjin Electric Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview.
Similarly, as the most critical battery, it is also in a state of urgency. "It should be said that our country has basically mastered the key technologies of vehicle power batteries, and the key technical indicators have reached an advanced level of similar foreign products, but there are problems and gaps in the industry." Lu Shigang, Dean of Guolian Automotive Power Battery Research Institute, told reporters Said. Guolian Battery is the “national team” of the battery industry established in September last year. The goal is to enhance the competitiveness of the battery industry.
In the view of the institute, the specific energy density, high and low temperature characteristics, reliability and economy of China's lithium iron phosphate power battery products are significantly lower than those of foreign countries using ternary material power batteries. In terms of enterprises, there are a large number of enterprises in China, and most of them have far different economic scale, profitability, research and development team, research and development capabilities, research and development systems, and companies in Japan and South Korea.
"In general terms, there are two or three hundred power batteries in our country, but there are more than 2,000 batteries actually used. (Industry concentration is relatively scattered, but there are 8 power batteries in Korea and Japan, Japan 5 Home and South Korea 3, these 8 accounted for nearly 80% of the global power battery production. Our 2,000 battery companies accounted for about 17% to 18% of the world's supply, this year may be close to this number 20%.” Wang Dong, director of the National 863 Program's major special power battery test center, said in an interview at the end of last year. “All foreign R&D investment is concentrated, but China has to be dispersed to thousands of companies. Is this kind of R&D investment a huge waste?"
"We are accustomed to aiming at international high-end enterprises to go to the 'standards' in research and development, but our batteries are still not based on the basics." Yang Tao, general manager of Henan Lithium Power Co., Ltd. said. In fact, the key raw materials of the battery, such as the diaphragm, etc., we basically rely on imports, and the production equipment is also imported.
At the 2015 Global New Energy Vehicle Conference held in Tianjin in late January, the world's leading manufacturer of lithium-ion battery separators (the diaphragm is a key component of the battery, a membrane that can effectively prevent electrons from moving and allow ions to move). Global sales of Celgard, USA Lin Mi, vice president of marketing, said that Celgard's global lithium battery separator market share is about 55%, and the ternary system's electric vehicle diaphragm occupancy rate is about 85%. This means that the US company has basically dominated the supply of lithium battery separators worldwide.
In addition to the motor and battery, the electric control system in the key technology of the electric vehicle "three powers", the parts and components enterprises from China are also close to "aphasia." "In order to seek suppliers, the electronic control system contacted four or five local enterprises a few days ago, the situation is not optimistic, the overall technology is still relatively large compared to foreign countries." A vehicle insider told reporters that "actually" The three big ones are better, and the 'three small electric' situation is even worse, and some of China can rarely do it.” Cai Wei told reporters.
The most important thing for electric vehicles is three large pieces and three small pieces. Three big parts refer to batteries, motors and electric controls; three small pieces refer to electric air conditioners, electric steering machines and electric brakes. "In addition to the three big three small, our switch tubes, plug-in tubes, and chips can't be built by ourselves, and we don't speed up the layout. After a car is opened, it is all made in the US and made in Germany. Nothing is made in China."
Root cause: local protection support is not enough. The weakness of new energy auto parts is caused by many aspects. “The primary reason for weak parts is local protectionism. Current subsidies include national, provincial, and municipal support. At the national level, support is the same standard, but provincial and municipal subsidies are based on local standards. Come.
Of course, no one buys it. The local government will specify that this standard is a kind of protection. "A local new energy auto parts company manager told reporters.
Taking Hangzhou as an example, local companies use local companies' products in the choice of battery suppliers. In 2011, an electric vehicle of Zhejiang local enterprise Zhongtai Automobile caught fire because the battery pack caught fire. Zotye does not have battery technology and the battery is supplied by a local company. Zhongtai insiders told reporters afterwards that this battery supplier has a geographical advantage, but it is not a supporting agent selected by Zhongtai.
In addition, the current national subsidy policy also has a clear provision, that is, the domestic electric vehicle "three electricity" (battery, motor, electronic control) must have "two electricity" is domestically independent, in order to obtain financial subsidies. . Under the double insurance, some small businesses that depend on subsidies for survival have emerged everywhere. “Although the technology is not very good, it is sold. Local subsidies and local protection are like their natural greenhouses.” An industry insider is quite angry.
In the top-level design of the system, the deeper reason is that, like the development of traditional automobiles, the state has not given full attention to the parts of new energy. In fact, taking lessons from the development of traditional vehicles, policy makers have taken into account the same issues in the development of new energy vehicles. They have changed in the top-level design. For example, the establishment of new energy component suppliers in China is not high. The 50% share ratio limit and subsidies for parts and components, but the support is not enough.
“In the case of subsidies, the first round of subsidies is the whole vehicle. The second round of subsidies is the key component. Only the third round is the key component supplier of parts and components. The amount and intensity of subsidies are one by one. There are few layers. Moreover, there is no technical standard, and everyone is all in one, which makes the truly innovative enterprises get insufficient support.” Wang Binggang pointed out sharply. Yin Tongyue believes that the subsidy lag period is also very long, and small companies have already faced the predicament of death after subsidies. "Sometimes, if the subsidy is pressed for half a year and then subsidized, the enterprise is more difficult."
For a large number of companies, launching a new energy business is a bet. The prospects for this industry are unclear and the funds needed are astronomical. Dong Yang, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, once told a small story. In 2014, he visited Honda in Japan and saw the battery testing organization used to test the battery of the whole vehicle. There are 300 devices. Dong Yang calculated that he thought he would invest 560 million US dollars. But Honda told him that the equipment had invested 10 times of its expectations. "I think the battery is such a thing, how can I have to invest so much money?"
"There is no doubt that the new energy vehicles will stimulate a new round of investment in the future, but how to invest? The investment is too small, the car factory does not look up, does not give you the opportunity to do the matching at all, the investment scale is too big, we are worried The sustainability of the policy is afraid of change.” Qin Xingcai, president of the power battery supplier Tianjin Lishen Automobile Co., Ltd., told reporters. As a result, the last thing that companies present is often utilitarian behavior – the lack of enthusiasm and investment in research and development to achieve short-term benefits.
"At present, our domestic new energy component companies are generally less than 1% in research and development, only a few tenths of a percent, and the international pass line is 5%." Cai Wei said. "Some technologies, no one will do it, no one wants to do it."
The future: to prevent "hollowing"
With the increasing support of the national team's new energy auto industry, the rapidly activated market demand has gradually exposed the upstream component supply problems.
Due to the advanced nature and reliability competitiveness of local suppliers in the new energy vehicle parts technology, domestic automakers prefer Japanese and Korean companies with better quality and lower prices in terms of supplier selection. For example, in the battery field, Samsung, LG and SK have recently announced the establishment of joint ventures in China, including SAIC, Changan and other major domestic car manufacturers are also preparing to use Korean-made batteries in their own brand cars.
“This year, the battery-based local companies should still live well, but I asked the top 10 manufacturers of the top 10 sales companies – most of them are our shareholders and asked which brands they chose. In addition to a small selection of domestic batteries, most of the vehicle companies have chosen foreign battery suppliers. Qin Xing told reporters that this situation is difficult to change in a short period of time.
This is basically the case with the motor. In the view of many local automakers, many local motor suppliers have even “transformed” directly from industrial motors, so the understanding of the car and the drive system is not deep. The result is that once the relevant motor products are used, the new energy is complete. Vehicle reliability and consistency will be much worse. "Basically no two products are the same, because it doesn't need two to be the same. After mass production, these are big problems." Yin Tongyue said.
The choice of enterprises is not right or wrong, but in Wang Binggang's view, the weakness of new energy auto parts has become a dangerous sign. "In traditional cars, because the parts are too weak, the development of independent brands is very difficult. If we follow this trend, if the electric vehicles with lower joint venture prices and better quality come, what should we do? Good new energy vehicles will repeat the same mistakes, and the hollowing out of the industry will repeat itself in new energy vehicles.” Wang Binggang is very worried.
Cai Wei believes that electric vehicles should avoid this situation. The state should still vigorously support new energy sources, focus on research and development of common technologies, and increase investment in system-level components. “Improve the level of core components and system integration, so that China's overall level can go up. Compared with traditional car capabilities, it seems that the gap between new energy vehicles and the world is smaller. But the distance has been widened. The whole trend. The electric drive industry chain is lacking in R&D and training. There are not a number of high-quality suppliers with core competitiveness. Just after solving the problem from scratch, we stop investing in R&D. So, the level of China's motor system will soon be shackled. Behind," Cai Wei said.
But to form support for the parts system, there is still a lot of work to be done from the central government level. “The first is the establishment of technical standards. Now all the auto manufacturers set a standard by themselves. The supply standards between different procurement entities are completely different. If the auto factory does not use your products, the supplier will lose completely. The bottom." A secondary supplier in Jiangsu told reporters. Taking the battery as an example, Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said earlier that the draft standard will be planned in the first quarter of this year.
The industry believes that with standards, industry access and regulation also need to keep up. Zhang Xiangmu, director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed at the China Electric Vehicles 100 Conference held recently that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will develop some access regulations for parts and components. The first is battery access. In fact, the requirements for parts and components of the whole vehicle are not high. Xiao Guowei, the chairman of Guangzhou Jingke Electronics, revealed that the domestic automakers believe that the safety system of the entire vehicle can pass, and ignore the quality requirements of the parts.
“I think the most important thing is regulation. Developing a car abroad usually takes three years to certify, and our domestic cars and products have a development cycle that is too short. Because we don’t pay attention to durability and safety, we only aim at it. It is necessary to supervise the sale of the car to the enterprise. This situation must be supervised, and only the truly qualified things can receive the subsidy. It cannot be said that two people will be qualified after eating a meal.” A new energy component The supplier said.

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