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“The increase in industrial profits has obviously declined, which is not mainly at the operational level of the company, but at the macro level.†said Cheng Wei, Director of the Macroeconomic Strategy Research Department of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
Among the 39 major industries, the most significant changes in profits compared with the same period of last year were the petroleum processing, coking and power industries. Statistics show that from January to May of this year, the national oil processing and coking industry changed from a profit of 35.2 billion yuan in the same period of last year to a net loss of 44.3 billion yuan; the profit of the power industry decreased by 74.0% year-on-year.
The price of oil was upside down and the price of thermal coal soared. The prices of refined oil and electricity were regulated by the state, and losses or profits of related industries fell sharply.
The oil price in the international market continued to rise sharply, especially since mid-February this year. After breaking the $100 mark per barrel, it has risen to $130 and has exceeded $140 recently. Before the country raised the price of refined oil on June 20, the domestic sales price of refined oil was roughly equivalent to 68 US dollars per barrel.
China's oil dependence on foreign countries is close to 50%. Xu Kunlin, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that due to rising international oil prices, before the country raised the price of refined oil products, a ton of oil produced in domestic refining links would have to lose about 3,000 yuan.
The inversion of oil prices directly led to the difficult situation of petroleum processing and coking industry. Bureau of Statistics data, 2007
In the first five months, the oil processing and coking industry made a profit of 34.3 billion yuan. In the first two months of this year, the net loss was 20.6 billion yuan, and the net loss in the first five months was 44.3 billion yuan. The loss was further aggravated.
The power industry is similar. According to the statistics of the China Electricity Council and the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, the average price of coal for power generation nationwide has risen by nearly 60 yuan for two consecutive rounds this year. From January to May of this year, the loss of power generation companies reached more than 80%.
Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to May 2007, the profits of the power industry increased by 60.6%. From January to February this year, the profit decreased by 61.0%, and from January to May decreased by 74%.
"The rapid appreciation of the renminbi has caused export companies' profit margins to be greatly squeezed." Cheng Wei pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has accelerated, and many export-oriented enterprises have appreciated the value of their domestically sourced raw materials and products relative to foreign countries, and have obtained sales abroad. However, relative to the domestic devaluation, the “two compulsion†profit growth naturally suffers.
The impact of exchange rate changes on corporate profits and even the entire economy is increasingly apparent. On June 27, one US dollar was converted to 6.8610 yuan, and at the beginning of the year, it was US$ 7.2996 to US$ 1. Within half a year, the appreciation of the renminbi reached 6%, and the pace of appreciation significantly accelerated.
Although the growth rate of China’s industrial profits declined significantly in the first five months of this year compared with the same period of last year, 20.9% is still a not-too-significant increase. The increase of 42.1% in the same period of last year contained more short-term factors that the domestic refined oil price was slightly higher than the international market.
Thankfully, driven by the significant increase in profit growth in the coal and steel industries, the increase in industrial profits in the first five months of this year also accelerated by 4.4 percentage points from the previous two months. The overall momentum of China's industrial economic development is good. .
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 27th, from January to May of this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China rose by 20.9% year-on-year, which was roughly half that of the same period of last year.