Under the dual pressure of sluggish demand and escalation of emission regulations, the diesel engine market in 2014 once again fell to the bottom. Looking forward to 2015, most engine companies will be more cautious and low-key when setting sales targets. The market differentiation in 2014 was even more obvious, but there are still many suspense left in the future changes in the market structure: For example, in 2015, will the market's “twinning battle” evolve into an “annihilation battle” in the “overweight and lean” market? Whether foreign-funded engine companies can use the policy “spring breeze” to wait for opportunities and the light machine market will leave several companies...

2015 Changes in the Pattern of Diesel Engine Market
2015 Changes in the Pattern of Diesel Engine Market

After sorting out the development of the diesel engine market in 2014, the reporter believes that in 2015, China's automotive diesel engine market will usher in major changes in the market structure, in which "knock-out match" is likely to first occur in the field of light aircraft, The more powerful independent engine companies, such as Weichai and Yuchai , will continue to strengthen their “diversified” development ideas and resist market risks. Some foreign-invested diesel engine companies that have been deeply ploughed in China for many years may have an uproar this year.

Light-weight machine companies will encounter “knock-out” sales in China's light-duty truck market fell nearly 20% year-on-year in 2014, the largest decline in the past five years, not only that, the lighter-card market product structure changes more obvious, the proportion of high-end market upgrade, low-end economy The light truck market has shrunk dramatically. The industry expects that the market share of medium-end and high-end light trucks will continue to expand in 2015, and the sales volume and market share of economic low-end light trucks will continue to decline. This is really bad news for light diesel companies that are short of money and have no new products.

At present, the technological upgrading pressure faced by light machine companies is unprecedented. This can also be seen from the 2014 production and sales data. Chaochai, Quanchai, and Shandong Huayuan Lai’s sales all experienced a sharp decline. Among them, Chaochai's annual sales volume was only over 70,000 units, down by more than 40% year-on-year, directly falling out of the top ten rankings, and the total amount of diesel fell by 33.52%. The sales volume of Shandong Huayuan Laiyin also dropped by 28.35% in 2014. The main reason for the decline in the sales volume of these enterprises is that they are not fully prepared for the country's four emission upgrades and are lacking in mass production new products that can meet the country's four emission upgrades.

The construction machinery market continues to adjust and the competition in the agricultural machinery market is fiercer. In light of the weak demand in the light-card market, many light-duty engine manufacturers will continue to bear the pressure of tight funding, new supplies, and continuous loss of customers in 2015.

China’s light engine companies have been seeking to consolidate their market position and customer resources by means of “marriage” with vehicle manufacturers. However, in recent years, the enthusiasm of automakers for the acquisition of light machinery companies has fallen to historical lows. The news of mergers and acquisitions that came out in previous years ended in failure. In July 2014, Beiqi Foton sold its entire diesel-powered shares, which further exacerbated the situation of Quanchai.

Some of the listed engine companies that have financing platforms have relatively good days. For example, Yunnei Power Co., Ltd. through a private placement at the end of 2014, successfully raised 745 million yuan for the “engineering project of environmental protection and efficient light commercial vehicle engine industrialization” to provide capital protection for the production capacity of new products. "For many light machine manufacturers, the country's four emission upgrades is a hurdle, and the companies that have moved forward have the opportunity to survive and develop." An industry source told reporters that the upgrading of products in the light engine market is the trend of the times, thinking that it can be passed The company will eventually be eliminated by the market.

In fact, with the development of high-end light trucks, technological advances in the light-duty diesel industry have not only been limited to emission requirements, but light weight, miniaturization, and high efficiency have become the focus of product competition. This means that a lot of development investment and cost increase. For companies whose operating funds have been stretched, I am afraid it will be difficult to bear.

In 2015, under the heavy market pressure, the consolidation of the light engine market is imminent, and which light engine company will disappear? We may as well wait and see.

Independent engine companies rely on “diversification” to combat market risks In 2014, both Weiqing Diesel and Yuchai’s two independent engine companies failed to achieve their sales targets in the current year, but they basically maintained their position in their respective traditional markets. Although Yuchai's annual sales decreased by 7.06% year-on-year, its sales increased by 3% year-on-year and its market share increased by 1.4 percentage points. In 2014, Yuchai Powered by Tongji Power, Ship Power, Passenger Car Power, Gas Power and Overseas Markets. The sales volume is increasing, achieving the expected sales target in the passenger vehicle power market, and continuing to maintain its position as the leading leader in the traditional advantages of passenger cars. Weichai, under the pressure of mainstream heavy-duty truck companies building their own engines and foreign-funded engine companies, offset the decline in sales volume of the heavy-duty truck market through growth in ships, generator sets, and truck cranes.

However, the current market pressures on the two companies are also obvious. As we all know, the development of the commercial vehicle market is closely related to the growth of the macro economy. In 2015, the downward pressure on China's macroeconomy remains a consensus. Under the unfavorable market demand and rising cost of car purchases, the sales volume of the commercial vehicle market is naturally not optimistic, and this pressure will be transmitted to engine companies accordingly.

The sense of market crisis for independent engine companies is naturally stronger. On the one hand, in the heavy machine market, heavy-duty truck companies have launched engine projects, and road freight has been hit by high-speed rail freight. On the other hand, foreign-funded engine giants are pressing harder and harder by their technological superiority, constantly squeezing the inherent market space of the company. .

From the current perspective, continuing the diversified development of products and markets many years ago and improving their competitiveness in terms of quality, cost, delivery, and service will continue to be an independent engine company such as Weichai and Yuchai in 2015 to counter market risks. The main way.

With a richer product lineage and technological and scale cost advantages, with the continuous optimization of the product structure, market structure and lean management of these companies, independent engine companies will continue to be the mainstay of this market. From the perspective of market expansion, overseas exports will also become an important way for independent engine companies to achieve breakthroughs in the market in addition to the development of markets such as ships, generator sets, and general aircraft.

Who will win the foreign brand?

2014 marked a significant year of improvement in the performance of foreign-invested engine companies. The implementation of the country’s four emission upgrades is actually good news for foreign brands such as Cummins, Mann, Shangfei Red, and Navistar. In particular, the upgrading of light machines gave these foreign companies a lot of opportunities. Taking Navistar as an example, its 2014 engine output has reached 66,000 sets, and its 2015 target is even higher. According to its plan, the 2.8L engine will produce 80,000 sets and the 3.2L engine will produce 13,000 sets, 4.8L. 7000 engines are produced. The Cummins light engine also rose sharply with the surge in sales of Beijing Foton high-end light truck Omar. It is understood that in 2014, Fukuda equipped Cummins ISF engine sales of Omar, Ollington CTX rapid growth, which Omar's market growth rate of up to 50%.

In the heavy machine market, the MAN Engine brand was launched on the heavy machine market in 2014. In 2015, it became the main product that CNHTC continued to focus on promotion. According to the plan, the major vehicle models of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group will be adjusted to the MAN Engine. The sales of MAN technology products in CNHTC products will exceed 1/3.

However, the biggest winner among foreign brands may still be Cummins. In the past year, the foreign brand that has been deeply cultivating the Chinese market has achieved a double-digit increase. Not only has it achieved a major breakthrough in the light engine market, but on June 7 last year, the mass production of the Cummins ISG series heavy-duty engines at the new plant of Foton Cummins made a strategic step for its expansion in the heavy machine market. This Cummins ISG series heavy-duty engine with an inline six-cylinder designed and developed specifically for the Chinese market can cover 228 to 382 kW of power. It can meet a wide range of global market demands and emissions standards at different stages. The impact on the current heavy machine market will be met. Great. In this year, Cummins also introduced the first natural gas engine.

Experts in the industry believe that the sales volume of the heavy machinery market in 2015 will remain the same as or slightly increase from 2014. However, it is clear that the strength of the market parties has changed. Whether it is the light machine or the heavy machine market, the trend of the market structure is full of variables.

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