Total BP Equities Exploring: Common Action Sets Up Chinese Acquisition Obstacles
Following April 4th, Total revealed that China’s foreign exchange investment institutions have invested USD 3.14 billion to acquire a 1.6% stake in the company. BP also announced similar news on April 15, involving a USD 2 billion investment and approximately 1% ownership in BP shares. These moves have raised questions about the motivations behind these acquisitions and their potential implications for both Chinese investment institutions and broader energy strategies.
What is the connection between these two transactions? What methods might Chinese capital be using to make such large-scale investments? And how could these acquisitions impact China's long-term energy strategy? To explore these issues, this reporter spoke with two professionals in the international investment sector.
Are these acquisitions linked to "resources"? An analyst who previously worked at a well-known foreign investment bank told the reporter that, based on current understanding, the actions of China’s foreign exchange investment institutions are more like a standard investment approach—aimed at finding a way to deploy excess capital. The decision to invest in Total and BP was largely driven by the belief that their stock prices were undervalued and presented an attractive opportunity.
How can such a massive sum—over USD 2 billion—be invested without causing significant market fluctuations? The analyst explained that since the average daily trading volume is in the hundreds of millions, it’s feasible to accumulate such a position over a few days or weeks without triggering major price movements.
Another concern is whether the stakes held by Chinese institutions could influence the management of these companies. According to the analyst, it’s unlikely. Major global corporations like BP, HSBC, and USB typically have widely dispersed ownership. The largest single shareholder usually holds only around 1%, and their board structures are stable. Small changes in shareholding are not enough to affect key decisions.
“This isn’t about acquiring energy resources,†the analyst said. “It’s purely an investment move.â€
A second British investment analyst offered a slightly different perspective. He agreed that the Chinese investment institutions’ purchases of Total and BP shares are primarily business-driven, aiming for returns rather than strategic control. However, he pointed out that the public announcements from Total and BP differ from what many observers might expect.
He noted that the disclosure of increased Chinese holdings was not necessarily a positive signal. Instead, it could be interpreted as a message: “We know what you’re doing.†Once the information is public, further purchases could face obstacles due to potential stock price pressures. Some reports suggest that BP’s announcement coincided with a visit by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer to China, which some may interpret as a sign of openness to Chinese investment. But the analyst disagreed: “They want us to buy their financial institutions and invest more in their systems. It’s not that we want to buy their key companies.â€
Looking ahead, he warned that Chinese institutions will likely face more challenges when attempting to acquire large international firms, especially those in the energy sector—whether for strategic or investment purposes.
In terms of ownership structure, our reporter analyzed the public equity lists of Total and BP. As shown in the table, State Street Corp is the largest institutional investor in BP. Many of its shareholders and mutual fund holders also appear on Total’s shareholder list. While the names vary, the overlap suggests that there may be a common player with aligned interests.
Notably, the top institutional investors of State Street Corp are also among the largest shareholders of Total, and several of its top mutual funds hold positions in both companies. For BP, the overlap is slightly smaller but still significant.
Recently, Total’s CEO confirmed that a Chinese-funded public fund had acquired roughly 1.3% of Total’s shares, though the fund’s identity remains undisclosed. Rumors suggested it could be the China Investment Corporation (CIC), but a CIC spokesperson denied this, stating that the investor was not affiliated with CIC.
When asked if these acquisitions could lead to greater access to energy resources in the future, both professionals interviewed by the reporter gave the same clear answer: don’t even think about it. As one analyst put it, “Forget about it.â€
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