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According to the latest statistical data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2007, sales of heavy-duty vehicles of over 14 tons in China achieved 487,500 vehicles, an increase of 59.60% over the same period of last year, creating the highest weight in the heavy-duty truck market. The highest single-month sales reached 53,900 units, which is equivalent to 1.13 times the sales in 1999.
In recent years, the heavy-duty auto market has been developing rapidly. The author believes that the heavy-duty truck market is mainly due to the rapid growth in the national economy and the pent-up demand and potential demand brought about by the policy-related laws and regulations stimulating the toll-by-weight Six features:
First, the industry structure has changed, Steyr platform heavy truck completely defeated the liberation, Dongfeng quasi heavy truck. Taking a look at the performance of major heavy truck companies in recent years, Steyr platform heavy trucks represented by CNHTC, Shaanxi Auto, and Auman maintained rapid growth. Market share has occupied half of the industry, while quasi-heavy truck companies represented by Liberation and Dongfeng Market share continues to decline. The reason for this is that in the final analysis, Steyr products are more in line with user needs in the new environment. Liberation and Dongfeng have been struggling to achieve the transition from the medium-card and quasi-heavy cards to heavy trucks in a new environment with rapidly changing user needs, but they have lagged behind. Studying the market growth rate in 2006 and 2007 The author found that in the new round of market competition, the Steyr platform's heavy truck completely defeated the quasi heavy truck, but in the long run, the competition between the two platforms will continue to 2008 even longer.
Secondly, the heavy truck above 280 hp is the biggest growth point in the market in 2007. Since 2000, the heavy-duty vehicle market (heavy trucks: 280 hp or more; quasi-heavy trucks: 210-260 hp) formed peak sales in both markets in 2004 and 2007, but the biggest difference between the two is that the main product in 2004 was quasi heavy trucks. This year, the growth of the heavy-duty vehicle market was driven by the rapid growth of Steyr heavy trucks represented by Shaanxi Auto, Auman, and Heavy Truck.
Thirdly, from the point of view of sales models, the tractor is the second growth point in the market in 2007. With the continuous improvement of highway conditions and the acceleration of regional economic circulation, as well as the increasing popularity of third-party logistics, medium and long-distance transportation has gradually become a trend. With the rapid adoption of weight-based toll collection methods throughout the country, supervising policy guidance based on the number of axles, and continued increase in fuel prices, the advantages of traction semi-trailer transportation methods have become more prominent. Heavy-duty semi-trailer tractors are allowed to carry loads, tons and kilometers. The advantages of fuel consumption, maintenance costs, and other models are unmatched and have been welcomed by more and more transportation professionals.
Fourth, new products have become the third growth point in the heavy truck market. Shaanxi Automobile Delong, Deyu, CNHTC, Auman ETX, Dongfeng Tianlong, Liberation Aowei, J6, Jianghuai Gefa, and Valin have become the pillar products for various companies. From the perspective of the entire industry, The market share of new products has risen rapidly, which is reflected in the speed at which new products are launched by old companies. New companies have taken advantage of market expansion to enter the market.
Fifth, product exports are the fourth growth point in the heavy truck market. With the rapid improvement of China's heavy-duty truck products and the gradual improvement of after-sales service networks, China's heavy-duty trucks with extremely high performance-to-price ratio have emerged in the fast-growing international market. They are favored by more and more countries, and their export sales have doubled.
Sixth, power and displacement upgrades are getting better. In recent years, especially in 2007, the power platform for truck sales has shifted significantly. The sales volume of 210~260 hp quasi heavy trucks has shrunk dramatically. 280~300 hp heavy truck products have become the mainstream in the market, heavy truck products exceeding 300 hp have grown rapidly, and power platforms have grown rapidly. The speed of development has accelerated; displacement upgrades have also kicked off, with upgrades from 8 liters, 9 liters, 10 liters to 11 liters, and 12 liters. Large-displacement heavy trucks have gradually become a market development trend. Weichai Power is The 12-liter displacement diesel engine launched by the representative is welcomed by the market.
Looking ahead to the heavy truck market in 2008, the author believes that it is necessary to first understand several factors affecting the trend of the heavy truck market in 2008, and then to judge the overall market demand in 2008. Before writing this article, the author worked with several senior market researchers in the heavy truck industry major companies. After a lot of communication, it is agreed that the factors affecting the demand for the heavy truck market in 2008 are as follows:
- The economic growth of the country slowed down in 2008, but the fundamentals are positive. First of all, the role of the government in promulgating a series of investment restraint policies in 2007 will be postponed this year. However, the macroeconomic control of the government has a limited impact on economic growth. In 2007, the national economy maintained a high growth rate of 11.4%, which could explain the problem; secondly, the government The keynote to the economic situation in 2008 is “to prevent the two from being excessively fast and tighten monetary policyâ€, and the economy will maintain a steady and rapid development. “Maintaining stability, making good character first, and scientific development†is the main theme, and GDP is expected to be in 2008. The growth rate will still be about 11%. Third, in recent years, the highway infrastructure has been continuously improved, the process of urbanization is accelerating, the construction of new rural areas has been accelerated, and the logistics flow between cities and urban areas has been accelerating. Third-party logistics based on cost considerations has prevailed. Will have a positive impact on the heavy truck market in 2008. In short, although the growth rate of the national economy has slowed down in 2008, the industry directly affected by demand for heavy trucks has a limited impact, and the fundamentals of economic factors are positive.
- Policy factors affecting the market trend in 2008. There are three policy factors that have an impact on the heavy truck market in 2008. One is the weight-based charging policy. At present, there are already 12 provinces and cities across the country that have implemented a toll-by-weight policy, and nine provinces and municipalities have implemented a weight-based charging policy. In 2008, it is estimated that 5 to 6 provinces and cities will implement toll-by-weight fees, so that if weight-based tolls are imposed in major provinces and cities across the country, they will have a positive impact on the heavy-duty truck market; the second will be fully implemented on July 1. The country's 3 emission standards will lead to a significant increase in the cost of car purchases and the use of users. At the same time, they will have an important impact on the service costs of all heavy truck companies and impose higher requirements on dealers, which will have a negative impact on the entire heavy truck market. The impact is mainly reflected in delaying the cycle of vehicle renewal and purchase. The third is the gradual strengthening of national environmental protection awareness. Energy conservation and consumption reduction have become one of the main indicators for measuring the achievements of governments at all levels. Some provinces and cities have clearly stated that emission reduction targets are not Up to standard, the party and government leaders removed their positions on the spot. This will give governments at all levels investment and blind investment to bring a curse, and high-energy-consuming and high-pollution industries will be increasingly constrained. However, I believe that overall, policy factors have limited impact on market demand.
- Other factors affecting the market trend in 2008. By the end of 2007, the nation’s heavy-duty motor vehicle population reached 2.2 million, the market demand was nearly saturated, and the tense transport capacity was basically relieved; with the rapid increase in people’s income level and the changing consumption concept, the vehicle update cycle gradually accelerated. Heavy toll collection, change of charging methods, a series of external factors such as the implementation of State III, overload control, and high oil prices have prompted major changes in the operating environment of heavy-duty vehicles, which have promoted the pace of vehicle renewal, and the prospects for heavy-duty trucks adapting to the new environment are promising. Calls for efficient heavy trucks; users generally begin to realize the economics of heavy trucks, and the original “small horse-drawn carts†will shift to the direction of “big horse-drawn carts†and “big horse-drawn cartsâ€; diesel prices continue to rise, and in some areas even There is an oil shortage, which increases operating costs on the one hand and promotes sales of fuel-efficient products on the other. These factors alternately exist. Overall, the total demand for the heavy-duty truck market in 2008 is negative, but it will speed up the adjustment of the product structure of heavy-duty trucks, which will certainly provide opportunities for some heavy-duty truck companies.
Based on the above review of the performance of the heavy truck market in 2007 and the factors affecting the demand for the heavy truck market in 2008, the author believes that the heavy truck market will enter a new round of adjustment this year and the overall market will not be able to achieve 487,000 heavy truck market in 2007. With last year's rapid growth, sales volume will decline significantly compared with 2007, and sales volume is expected to reach 400,000 to 450,000 units this year, which is 8% to 18% lower than in 2007. The author believes that the biggest aspect of the heavy truck market in 2008 is not the large fluctuations in the total amount, but rather the market opportunities brought about by the structural adjustment process.
From the perspective of user needs, heavy-duty trucks that can meet the requirements of self-weight, load, fuel consumption, and efficiency under the new regulatory environment will be welcomed by users. From the perspective of industry competition, the competition among enterprises will gradually evolve from simple product competition to competition among the entire industry chain. Whoever has perfect industrial chain resources will be involved in product development, cost control, and after-sales service. Market development and other areas take the lead!