China is in short supply in China and it raises the export tariff on coke coking coal

On the evening of the 15th, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting August 20, the provisional tax rate for coke exports will rise from 25% to 40%, while the temporary tax on coking coal exports will increase from 5% to 10%. Other bituminous coal exports will also be subject to a 10% temporary tariff. This move is part of a broader effort by the Chinese government to manage domestic and international market imbalances. Since 2008, China has faced tight coal supply conditions, yet international coal prices have remained high due to global market dynamics. Despite annual export quotas being adjusted downward, the government has continuously used taxation and quota controls to limit coal exports. Earlier this year, the provisional tax on coke exports was raised from 15% to 25%, with general trade coke export quotas set at only 2.39 million tons—far lower than the 9.62 million tons allocated in 2008. In 2008, as international coking coal prices surged, domestic demand for coke and coking coal skyrocketed. From January to May, coke exports reached 960,000 tons, 730,000 tons, 1.24 million tons, and 1.34 million tons respectively. By June, exports had slightly dropped to 1.5 million tons, with a total of 7.44 million tons exported from January to June—a 7.55% decline compared to the previous year. However, the FOB price of exported coke jumped dramatically, rising from $173/ton in the same period last year to $464.83/ton, an increase of $291.83/ton or 168.69%. In June, the average FOB price hit $498.32, setting a new record. Jin Qiang, chairman of the China Coking Industry Association, noted that demand for Chinese coke in the international market may slow in the second half of the year, potentially leading to slightly lower exports than the previous year. Despite the drop in coal imports—21.55 million tons in the first half of the year, a 20.4% decrease year-on-year—the scarcity of coking coal has driven some steelmakers to increase foreign purchases. From January to June, coking coal imports rose by 4.43% to 2.94 million tons, with May seeing a 50% year-on-year increase to 615,800 tons. Meanwhile, domestic coal exports surged by 10.2% to 25.49 million tons, with June exports reaching 6.99 million tons—an 83% increase. This shift turned a net import of 3.95 million tons in the first half of the year into a net export of 3.94 million tons, worsening the domestic coal shortage. Coking coal exports also saw a significant rebound, reaching 1.82 million tons from January to June, up 15.79% year-on-year. Exports in May soared to 694,700 tons, a 5.91-fold increase, marking a reversal of the long-term decline since 2004. Analysts suggest that the recent tax hikes are aimed at narrowing the gap between domestic and international prices, curbing excessive exports, and ensuring sufficient supply for key industries. The goal is to prevent further price increases in downstream sectors and avoid economic instability.

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