China Automobile Industry Association released data on automobile production and sales in February on March 10. The data shows that in February this year, due to the influence of holiday factors, the overall level of automobile production and sales was relatively low, but maintained a relatively fast growth year-on-year. In the January-February period, the production and sales of automobiles showed a growth trend, and the growth rate was higher than that of the same period of the previous year. New energy vehicles experienced a significant growth in February after a low production and sales in January. The industry expects new energy vehicles to sell or pick up as policies become clear and demand is released.

The overall level of production and sales is low

According to the automobile production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, in February, the automobile production was 2,195,600 units, a decrease of 8.84% from the previous month and an increase of 33.77% year-on-year; the sales volume was 1,398,200 units, a decrease of 23.03% from the previous month and an increase of 22.37% from the same period last year. Among them: passenger car production was 1,847,500 units, down 10.82% from the previous month, up 31.50% year-on-year; sales were 1,632,700 units, down 26.39% from the previous month and up 18.29% from the same period last year. Commercial vehicle production was 312,200 units, an increase of 4.95% from the previous month and an increase of 49.04% year-on-year; sales of 306,500 units increased by 1.72% quarter-on-quarter and 49.90% year-on-year.

Among the main types of passenger cars, compared with the previous month, the production and sales of the four major categories showed a downward trend; compared with the same period of last year, the production and sales of cross-type passenger cars and MPV decreased, and the growth of cars and SUVs was faster. Among them, the production and sales of cars increased by 26.22% and 15.14% year-on-year; the production and sales of SUVs reached 758,500 and 672,500, an increase of 60.90% and 40.01%.

Among the main varieties of commercial vehicles, compared with the previous month, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased significantly, and the number of trucks increased slightly. Compared with the same period of last year, the production and sales of passenger cars still declined, and the number of trucks increased rapidly. The production and sales of heavy goods vehicles were 86,000 and 86,400 units, up 5.10% and 4.05% from the previous month, up 1.3 times and 1.5 times year-on-year.

The China Automobile Association believes that in February this year, due to the influence of holiday factors, the overall level of automobile production and sales is relatively low.

New energy vehicle sales pick up

According to data from the China Automobile Association, new energy vehicles produced 17,972 units in February, up 148.2% from the previous month and up 15.5% year-on-year; sales were 17,596 units, up 145% from the previous month and up 30.3% from the same period last year. Cumulative production in the first two months was 25,213 units, a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%; cumulative sales of 24,781 units, down 30.5% year-on-year. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6,889 and 5,682 respectively.

The first five batches of the “Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have been re-examined, and this year is the first year of the new energy subsidies. In addition to the central financial subsidies already clear, the local financial subsidy policy They are all in urgent development. Huatai Securities (601688, shares it) pointed out that in the context of subsidies not yet fully defined, sales of the new energy vehicle market in the past two months have been in a relatively "chaotic" state.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Information Association, believes that the subsidy and catalogue did not land in January this year, which led to the stagnation of the new energy vehicle market. However, after the gradual clarification in February, the rapid adjustment of the car companies made the market show a rebound.

Guoxin Securities (002736, shares it) analysis pointed out that another reason for the growth in February is the concentrated release of the Beijing New Energy Vehicle Market's shake number allocation indicators. Recently, the Beijing Small Bus Indicators Office released the first year's lottery data. According to statistics, in this issue, 40,328 people will be directly allocated new energy vehicle indicators. This year, 51,000 individual new energy vehicle indicators have been used by nearly 80%. According to the speed of such application, it is expected that the next new energy vehicle indicator will be exhausted. With the increase in the purchase of new energy vehicles in Beijing, the sales of new energy vehicles in the second quarter may grow rapidly.

From the sales data, the increase in sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February was not a general increase. The companies that increased their sales year-on-year included Beiqi New Energy and Zotye. BYD was basically flat compared with the same period last year, while Jianghuai Automobile (600418, shares) Sales of new energy vehicles have fallen. Guosen Securities believes that the sales differentiation between new energy vehicles and enterprises in February is mainly related to product structure. For example, the latest model of Beiqi New Energy EC180, the subsidized price is 49,800-5,580 yuan. Considering the concentrated release of the new energy license index in the Beijing market in February, BAIC New Energy will reduce the subsidized price to less than 50,000 yuan, or it will become the first choice for the city to become a new energy-restricted city.

Turn to "market push"

Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply year-on-year in January-February, new energy vehicles still have high attention. The development of new energy vehicles should shift from “policy promotion” to “market promotion” to become a general view.

Cui Dongshu said that the new energy vehicles were cold in January and February, reflecting that auto companies are too dependent on policy subsidies. The reduction in subsidies means that the cost of new energy vehicles has increased relatively, and the selling price has increased on the basis of the original. This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to new energy vehicles that are accustomed to high subsidies.

The Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles clarifies that the 2016 standard will fall 20% in 2016 and will be completely stopped by 2020. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that this year we will study the alternative measures after the 2020 new government subsidies for new energy vehicles are withdrawn. At present, it is considered to establish a trading system using the fuel consumption points of traditional automobiles and the points of new energy vehicles, and has solicited opinions on the Internet.

In addition, in response to the problem of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the Minister of Finance Xiao Jie said that the financial subsidy funds are not “Tang Yu Meat”, and some of the fraudulent enterprises have been publicly notified, strictly handled and punished according to law, and recovered fraudulent funds and The fine was about 2.3 billion yuan. At the same time, the vehicles with problems were no longer subsidized, and the idle vehicles were also suspended for liquidation. Following the punishment of the first batch of four fraudulent car repair companies in December 2016, on February 4 this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a fine for seven new energy vehicle fraud companies.

Xu Yanhua, deputy secretary general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that China's new energy vehicle industry has entered a transition adjustment period. New energy passenger vehicles account for 1.5% of total passenger vehicles, and new energy vehicles account for 1.8% of total vehicles. . According to the plan of the new energy vehicle development roadmap, it is estimated that by 2020, it will basically reach 5%, and by 2025 it will reach 20%.

For the 2017 new energy vehicle production and sales target, the China Automobile Association expressed optimism, and it is expected to sell 700,000-800,000 units in 2017.

On March 7, the second batch of recommended catalogues of new energy vehicles landed, and the first two batches of recommended catalogues totaled 386 models. Huatai Securities pointed out that from the ring, the sales data of new energy passenger vehicles in February has obviously improved. Although the absolute scale of production and sales still needs to be improved, the probability of achieving sales growth of more than 40% in the whole year is still high. With the adjustment of policies and the maturity of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the sales growth of new energy passenger vehicles will gradually shift to demand-driven. After the increase in production and sales, new energy vehicle manufacturers and upstream key component companies can also diversify the pressure of subsidies through scale effects.

In addition, the residents of the cities that implement the vehicle license control policy are one of the main components of the consumption of new energy passenger vehicles, or they can accept a reasonable increase in the price of new energy vehicles. Overall, the demand suppression of new energy passenger vehicles is not enough to affect the growth of the whole year. It is expected that sales of new energy auto industry will be further recovered in March, and the overall sales trend will remain unchanged throughout the year.

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