The key theme we've been emphasizing for over a year now is the shift of freight from the for-hire market to private fleets—a trend that has significantly prolonged the soft freight cycle in an economy that has consistently exceeded expectations. However, according to the latest release of the *Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook* report, this trend may be coming to an end. “Lower equipment supply, especially from private fleets, could play a crucial role in a market turnaround in 2025,” said Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research. “Additionally, an upcoming FMCSA regulation could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states that haven’t previously required enforcement of the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While it's hard to measure the exact impact, this change on November 18 could have two positive outcomes: improving road safety and pushing truckload rates higher.” The DAT load/truck ratio isn't a simple 1-to-10 scale—it can go well beyond 11. It hit the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018, and reached the high teens in 2021, peaking above 20. Our seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio recently crossed 7 in early October, signaling that spot rates may rise slightly in the near term. “However, the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to push rates up in 2025 hasn’t fully taken shape yet,” Denoyer concluded. ### Freight Forecast Report Overview The monthly 58-page *Freight Forecast* from ACT provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts across a wide range of U.S. freight metrics, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The report offers monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the truckload (TL), less-than-truckload (LTL), and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year horizon, covering capacity, volume, and rate trends. With detailed insights into the freight rate outlook, the *Freight Forecast* helps companies across the supply chain plan with greater confidence and reduced uncertainty. ### About ACT Research ACT Research is the leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North American and Chinese markets. Its analytical services are widely used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT Research contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. The company has received numerous accolades, including recognition from the National Association for Business Economics, the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over four years. ACT Research senior staff members have also been named as top forecasters by the Chicago Federal Reserve and USA Today. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.

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