ACT Research has recently published its updated decarbonization forecast, titled *North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus*, which includes projections on the development of zero-emission technologies such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as alternative solutions for reducing emissions. This report highlights how these technologies are expected to shape the future of the commercial vehicle market in North America. According to Ann Rundle, Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy at ACT Research, "BEVs are currently one of the most viable options for achieving decarbonization goals across various applications and gross vehicle weight (GVW) segments." She added, "While FCEVs and NG trucks will continue to play a role, their adoption is likely to be more limited, concentrated in niche markets with slower growth compared to BEVs." The report also predicts a major increase in total Class 8 tractor sales by 2026, driven largely by the U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. These new environmental standards are expected to accelerate the shift toward cleaner technologies in the commercial trucking sector. Regarding BEV adoption, Rundle noted, "In 2025 and 2026, we expect relatively low adoption rates, as the commercial EV market is still in its early stages. Supply-side challenges, including infrastructure limitations, are currently holding back widespread deployment. However, this is expected to change significantly starting in 2027." Lydia Vieth, a Research Analyst at ACT, added, "Currently, medium-duty (MD) applications are the best fit for BEVs. However, California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation is pushing BEV adoption in Class 8 tractors through the end of the decade. Beyond 2030, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy-duty BEVs is expected to become more competitive, making them a stronger driver for adoption in higher GVW segments." On FCEVs, Vieth said, "FCEV volumes are expected to remain low from 2025 to 2029 due to higher TCO compared to diesel, NG, and BEVs. In addition to cost concerns, the lack of hydrogen refueling infrastructure will limit FCEV adoption to specific fleets and routes where H2 is available." Rundle concluded, "Our near-term forecast for natural gas trucks shows stable unit sales, regardless of overall Class 8 volume trends." ACT Research offers two key forecasting tools: the standard *NA CV OUTLOOK* and the enhanced *OUTLOOK Plus*. These reports provide comprehensive insights into the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market, covering Classes 4 through 8 vehicles and commercial trailers. They help industry stakeholders make informed decisions regarding planning, budgeting, go-to-market strategies, and leveraging third-party data for strategic guidance. The reports analyze key demand drivers such as regulatory changes, consumer behavior, and current market dynamics, offering detailed forecasts across trailer and heavy-duty segments, including powertrain composition (diesel, BEV, FCEV, and NG). The NA CV Outlook provides a five-year forecast for the trucking industry, including market analysis, demand trends, and regulatory impacts. ACT Research is a leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Their services are widely used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT is recognized for its economic insights, contributing to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and being part of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. Their experts have received numerous accolades, including top economic forecasts and industry leadership roles. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

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