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ACT Research has recently published its decarbonization forecast titled *North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus*, which outlines the expected progress in zero-emission technologies such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) trucks. This report provides a comprehensive view of how these technologies are likely to shape the future of commercial transportation in North America.
According to Ann Rundle, ACT’s Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy, BEVs are seen as a strong option for achieving decarbonization goals across various vehicle applications and gross vehicle weight (GVW) segments. She added that while FCEVs and NG trucks will continue to play a role, they will be limited to niche markets with much lower adoption rates compared to BEVs.
The report also predicts a major rise in total Class 8 tractor sales by 2026, driven by the U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. Rundle noted that BEV adoption is still in its early stages, with relatively low growth expected through 2026 due to supply-side challenges like infrastructure limitations. However, this is expected to change significantly from 2027 onward.
Lydia Vieth, a Research Analyst at ACT, highlighted that medium-duty (MD) applications are currently the best fit for BEVs. The California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) Advanced Clean Trucks regulation is accelerating BEV adoption in Class 8 tractors through the end of the decade. Beyond 2030, improved total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy-duty BEVs is expected to drive wider adoption in higher GVW segments.
FCEV truck volumes, however, are projected to remain low from 2025 to 2029. This is largely due to their higher TCO compared to diesel, NG, and BEV alternatives. In addition to cost issues, the lack of hydrogen refueling infrastructure will limit FCEV use to specific fleets and routes where H2 stations are available.
Rundle concluded that near-term forecasts for natural gas trucks show stable unit sales, regardless of overall Class 8 volume trends.
ACT Research offers two key forecasting tools: the standard *NA CV OUTLOOK* and the enhanced *OUTLOOK Plus*. These reports provide detailed insights into the North American commercial vehicle market, covering Classes 4–8 vehicles and commercial trailers. They help industry players make informed decisions regarding planning, budgeting, and go-to-market strategies.
The NA CV forecast includes an overview of current commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis, and five-year projections. It covers demand drivers like regulations and consumer behavior, along with market activity, unit forecasts, powertrain splits, and regulatory impacts.
ACT Research is a leading provider of data, analysis, and forecasts for the commercial vehicle and bus industries in North America and China. Their insights are used by major manufacturers, suppliers, investors, and financial institutions. ACT is also recognized for its economic forecasts and contributions to major economic indicators. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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